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Sudan faces a humanitarian catastrophe that may be the world’s greatest after over 500 days of bloodshed and strife.
Since April 2023, Sudan’s army, commanded by Gen. Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by his former deputy Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, have fought for control, killing around 52,000 and displacing tens of millions.
Aid organizations and the UN have warned that Sudan is at a “cataclysmic breaking point”.
Analysts say the Sudan war has garnered less worldwide attention than comparable wars, especially from the West, despite its magnitude and intensity.
Francois Sennesael, an African affairs specialist and scholar, said the Sudanese crisis is intense but not as geopolitically crucial as Ukraine or Gaza for the West.
“Ukraine is crucial for European security, but Sudan is not. This alone explains why the West focuses on Ukraine and not Sudan. Considering Israel, this rationale is similar.”
He added additional reasons for Sudan’s lack of attention include the UN’s declining influence in global affairs and Western nations’ increasing reluctance to actively meddle in other nations’ domestic issues.
Western media have “forgotten” Sudan, and “fatigue of Western populations towards Africa and its intractable conflicts and, quite importantly, the regionalisation of security issues,” he added.
Sudan is “not high on the agenda of left-wing parties, which was the case in 2004 during the Darfur crisis, because Gaza is their top priority,” he said. Western citizens are not pressuring their governments to act.
He thinks Western nations “are not willing to start an interventionist adventure” in Sudan.
“The West is pursuing an approach already seen in South Sudan or Ethiopia, which consists of trying to quickly get power-sharing agreements signed between warring elites and ‘leave’, unwilling to commit soldiers or money to maintain peace in Africa,” Sennesaell, an Oxford doctoral candidate, told Anadolu.
“There is no mention of a new peacekeeping mission for Sudan… Sudan is a good example of multilateralism’s declining role in security and Western nations’ disengagement in Africa.
Western nations are “cautiously engaged” and “trying to ‘fix’ Sudan without getting their feet on the ground,” he added.
“Gulf countries, but also Egypt and Turkiye, have shown a willingness – supported by some Western countries – to be the new ‘guardians’ of the region in terms of peace and security,” said Sennesael.
They haven’t been overly aggressive, and they appear to be playing their job. Despite a shared goal in keeping Sudan afloat, they struggle to speak with one voice due to regional divides and personal interests.
Massive human suffering ‘barely cracking the headlines’
British-Sudanese activist and pundit Mohanad Elbalal says Sudan’s humanitarian problem is “very low on the global conscience”.
The world’s greatest displacement catastrophe is Sudan. He told Anadolu that human suffering is tremendous yet little reported.
He added the Sudanese desire “greater global awareness of what is actually happening in Sudan” and the humanitarian relief situation, since little help is coming.
“Sudan is a country of 50 million people with over 10 million displaced people, despite other conflict areas like Gaza causing significant human suffering,” he stated.
“I think that needs global political attention, but primarily humanitarian attention because Sudan needs more aid.”
‘Shaky’ peace discussions
New US-sponsored Geneva discussions started on July 14 and continue this week.
According to US Special Envoy for Sudan Tom Perriello, the RSF, UN, African Union, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE, US, and Switzerland are sending delegates without the Sudanese army.
Elbalal and Sennesael said that Saudi Arabia and the US had led unsuccessful discussions.
“You can’t have a negotiation when only one party shows up,” Elbalal added, making a Geneva deal “extremely low.”
“Even if a ceasefire is reached, it’s pointless without strict measures to enforce it,” he remarked.
He noted that when the RSF were not battling the army, “they turned to looting and targeting civilians” before the conflict.
To provide humanitarian help, crossing into RSF regions is sometimes too perilous, according to the speaker.
“So, ceasefires are not a solution in itself, because a truce doesn’t improve the humanitarian situation,” he said.
Sennesael thinks the Swiss peace attempt “seems somewhat shaky, especially because the Burhan camp refused to come.”
He remarked, “It takes two to tango, so I am not very sure any peace dance will start in the next few weeks.”
According to the speaker, the RSF has consistently disregarded its commitments to expand humanitarian access, which peace negotiators were proud of.
An uncertain future
Sennesael calls Sudan’s position “the most complex situation” since independence.
“Sudan is split into two, and the closest it resembles is Libya—two governments claiming sovereignty but not controlling their entire territory,” he remarked.
The power struggle between two Generals has reopened historical fault lines, resulting in a deadly civil war where groups seek revenge at local, regional, and national levels.
The future might be “where local conflicts will ignite national violence and national violence will fuel conflicts across multiple regions across Sudan.”
For stability, Elbalal said that Khartoum control must be resolved.
“The situation is unstable… Neither the administration nor the RSF would negotiate seriously till the RSF is driven out of the capital, he added.
